Active Hurricane Season Could Put West Islip At Risk

Hurricane season began June 1 and ends November 30 and as West Islip residents make their way through the month of July and the "dog days of summer," they may also be keeping an eye to the sea for the threat of tropical weather systems.

Long Island extends about 100 miles from the island of Manhattan and its south shores are riddled with bays and estuaries that feed into the Atlantic Ocean. The exposure of some towns, including West Islip to the bays and ocean makes people and property vulnerable to the effects of hurricanes.

It has been almost 25 years since a hurricane made a direct hit on Long Island. Hurricane Gloria made landfall on Sept. 27, 1985 and the storm caused extensive damage along the East Coast of the United States, caused over a billion dollars in damage, and was responsible for eight deaths.

The first to hit Long Island since Hurricane Agnes in 1972, and the last until Hurricane Bob in 1991, Gloria was a Category 1 hurricane at the time it hit Long Island but was moving at 35mph (fast for a hurricane). The combination of speed and intensity left Long Island with downed trees and no power for weeks.

Each year, the National Hurricane Center makes a prediction on the amount of hurricanes there will be in the Atlantic Ocean, and also predicts the strength of these storms.

Because of unusually warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, and a other atmospheric and oceanic factors, including El Nino, the National Weather Service is anticipating an above active year for hurricanes in the Atlantic ocean with 18 named storms, 10 of which will be hurricanes, 5 of which will be major hurricanes (category 3 or higher).

According to hurricane forecasters at the National Weather Service, "one must remember that our forecasts are based on the premise that those global oceanic and atmospheric conditions which preceded comparatively active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar trends in future seasons."

The Center also stresses that while it may be possible to predict the frequency and strength of hurricanes, it is almost impossible to know where they may strike.

"The probability of landfall for any one location along the coast is very low and reflects the fact that, in any one season, most U.S. coastal areas will not feel the effects of a hurricane no matter how active the individual season is. However, all coastal residents should prepare for an active hurricane season every year."

This includes West Islip residents, especially those who live south of Montauk Highway, where exposure to the canals that lead to the Great South Bay may impact homes and people in the event of another landfalling hurricane like Gloria. Aside from high winds and heavy rain, coastal flooding (the number one killer during a hurricane) is capable of wiping out homes directly on the water.

It may not be known when, where or if a hurricane will impact West Islip this year but according to the National Hurricane Center, "It only takes one landfalling system to make this a very active season for you."